MATS Fellow:
Brendan Halstead, Alex Kastner
Authors:
Eli Lifland, Brendan Halstead, Alex Kastner, Daniel Kokotajlo
Citations
Abstract:
This website presents the AI Futures Model (Dec 2025 version), following up on the timelines and takeoff models we published alongside AI 2027. Predicting superhuman AI capabilities inherently requires much intuition and guesswork, but we've nonetheless found quantitative modeling to be useful.
Synthetic Persona Pretraining: Alignment from Token Zero
Authors:
Julian Minder
Date:
August 13, 2026
Citations:
Capability Provenance in Language Models: A Case Study in Social Reasoning
Authors:
Glenn Matlin, Taywon Min
Date:
August 10, 2026
Citations: