MATS Fellow:
Brendan Halstead, Alex Kastner
Authors:
Eli Lifland, Brendan Halstead, Alex Kastner, Daniel Kokotajlo
Citations
Abstract:
This website presents the AI Futures Model (Dec 2025 version), following up on the timelines and takeoff models we published alongside AI 2027. Predicting superhuman AI capabilities inherently requires much intuition and guesswork, but we've nonetheless found quantitative modeling to be useful.
AI Futures Model: Timelines & Takeoff
Authors:
Brendan Halstead, Alex Kastner
Date:
December 30, 2025
Citations:
0
Recontextualization Mitigates Specification Gaming without Modifying the Specification
Authors:
Ariana Azarbal, Victor Gillioz
Date:
December 22, 2025
Citations:
3